THE BASEBALL HISTORY COMES ALIVE BLOG
Please note: As we compose new blog entries, we will now send each one out to all our subscribers as we post them. Here’s a link to see the entire Blog Archives -GL
May 27, 2021
[Ed. Note: Mark Kolier sent me this blog entry with a caveat that “the title is provocative with intention.” In that regard, I think Mark succeeds. We don’t expect everyone to agree with Mark, of course, but he raises some interesting points which are worthy of discussion. Feel free to post your comments below. -GL]
New Blog Topic: Ty Cobb had it SO much easier than Mike Trout!
Already at least half the people reading this are aggravated with the headline!
Ty Cobb (playing 1905-1928) and Mike Trout (2011-active) played major league baseball more than 100 years apart. Both are among the greatest players baseball has ever seen. Nobody would argue that the world isn’t a very different place in 2021 than it was in 1921. Making it to the major leagues was a trial for Ty Cobb who reputedly trolled famous baseball writer Grantland Rice into getting a tryout with the Detroit Tigers and we all know how that worked out! Mike Trout’s route into the majors was much less uncertain.
So how could it possibly be said that Ty Cobb had it easier than Mike Trout? Major league baseball players today are paid gargantuan sums of money to play what is still considered a ‘kid’s game’. Professional baseball players in 1921 almost always had off-season jobs. Road trips are infinitely more comfortable today than they were in 1921 or at any time during Cobb’s career. All this hardly seems as if Ty Cobb had it any easier than Mike Trout.
Cobb himself was a smart and savvy investor having invested in a little-known Atlanta company called Coca-Cola that provided him with a comfortable
retirement in contrast to many of his peers. That Cobb had off-field success in business did not quelch his desire to be great on the field. Many baseball fans are aware of how hard-nosed (some say dirty) a player Cobb was on the field. Mike Trout has not and never will jump into the stands to battle with foul-mouthed paying customers!
How does Trout have it tougher than Cobb? When my son Gordon and I started our podcast in May 2020, the impetus came from a discussion we had about Ty Cobb’s amazing career average of .366 (it used to be .367 but that’s another story) and how Cobb did not have to face relief pitchers in the way Trout and all his
fellow major leaguers do today. Everyone is talking about how pitchers cannot go deep into games anymore and how complete games are dwindling year after year. In Cobb’s time, pitchers started more games, completed more games, and pitched more innings by far than they do today. We dove into the idea that a tiring starting pitcher in innings seven, eight, and nine would be easier fodder for Cobb and his fellow all-stars to take advantage of. At face value this all made sense. We did the research and things did not exactly come out the way we expected.
Great hitters are great hitters. They succeed against ALL types of pitchers at a greater rate than their peers. So, for Cobb, his career average of .366 would seemingly be exceeded in innings seven, eight, and nine, and should be lower in the first 6 innings. Here’s what we found: Cobb hit .355 in innings one, two, and three; .338 in innings four, five, and six; and .376 in innings seven, eight, and nine. It’s not easy getting all of the data on Cobb, since the early part of his career does not have the recorded stats in Baseball-Reference.com for more than 70% of his career.
Today’s relief pitchers are the reason why Ty Cobb had it so much easier than Mike Trout. Mike Trout is now playing his tenth season (and thus now eligible for Cooperstown induction where he will most surely end up). Mike Trout is a poster child for what we talk about in the podcast. For his career in innings one, two, and three Trout has hit .307; innings four, five, and six .323; and in innings seven, eight, and nine .284. All this adds up to a career average of .305.
By those splits, you might infer that Trout is feasting in the middle innings of a tiring starting pitcher or middle-relievers (as opposed to late-inning relief pitchers and closers), before having much more difficulty in the final three frames. And in no way does it suggest that somehow Mike Trout is not a ‘clutch’ player. We’re only talking about batting average here, but on-base average and OPS follow along the same line. It is interesting that Trout’s slugging average is higher in innings one, two, and three than four, five, and six.
In the episode, we discussed some players who excelled in late innings or at least were more consistent overall, like Joe DiMaggio. And then there’s Ted Williams
who was 20 points below his average in innings seven, eight, and nine versus innings one-through-six during an era in which late-game relief pitchers were not yet dominant. We also talk about players like Barry Bonds and Miguel Cabrera.
A career batting average of .350 would be amazing in today’s game BECAUSE of relief pitchers. This is the primary reason we expect that no player will ever exceed Cobb’s career .366 average. At least in this way Cobb indeed did have it way easier than today’s (and tomorrow’s) great hitters.
What do you think?
If you would like to listen to the episode it can be found here: https://www.buzzsprout.com/1066072/8326643
Mark Kolier
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